Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Bay-esian Analysis

-----I guess one of us has to comment on the Jason Bay signing. I would have preferred Holliday and I think the contract is arguably a slight overpay, but it's a decent signing in isolation.

The problem is that even with Bay, the Mets probably aren't a good enough team to make the playoffs. Even if Reyes/Beltran/Johan are healthy, the Mets are around a .500 team with Bay. Adding Bengie Molina would add another win. Adding Molina & Pineiro gets them to 83-84 wins. They'd still be far behind the Phillies and a few wins behind the Braves. It's hard to get this team to a truly competitive point because there are so many holes. It's hard to win with a lineup that includes Castillo, Francouer, Murphy, and Molina and a rotation that includes Pelfrey, Maine, and Oliver Perez.

If I was in charge, I would have tried to prop up the team with stopgap solutions (like a one-year Nick Johnson deal) and avoided any long-term deals that could hurt the team down the road. Then, pour extra money into the draft and international signings. This time next year, we'll have a clearer idea about some of the strengths and weaknesses of the team, and there will be much more attractive free agents on the market.

8 comments:

Bryan said...

Let's just put it this way: I'm happy you guys got him, but not happy I have to watch him. Such is my love for Jason Bay. We can't all be Pete.

Fred Coupon said...

As ludicrous as Ben Sheets' demands are, I would give him and Erik Bedard big one-year deals with lots of incentives. Beats relying on Maine and Ollie.

Bryan said...

That's a good plan.

cannatar said...

I haven't done much research into the injury status of Sheets and Bedard, but I agree that I'd rather give one-year deals to either or both of them than sign Pineiro to an expensive multi-year deal.

Bryan said...

Jo-el? More like No-el. Without the holiday cheer.

Fred Coupon said...

I'm aware that positional coaches are overrated in baseball, but based on the disappointing setback by Pelfrey alone last year, should Dan Warthen have even been brought back? I can give you Ollie's knee injury and Maine's arm problems, but the staff as a whole stunk anyway. Hard to believe I -and many others- took Rick Petersen for granted, because he did get some good mileage from Maine and has a clue about avoiding injury.

cannatar said...

I'm slow to credit or blame any pitching coach too much. I probably would have stuck with Peterson.

Coachie Ballgames said...

Joel Sherman also bashed the Bay signing, pointing out that a team with so many holes should have spent the Bay money on several players rather than just one.